Alp SuleimanGrowth Partner

Runway & Default Alive Calculator

Simple runway assumes today's burn never changes. This tool adds revenue and expense growth and asks Paul Graham's question: on your current trajectory, do you reach profitability before the money runs out?

Tool 6 / 15

Runway & Default Alive Calculator

Inputs

Currency

Where you are today
$

Money you can actually spend.

$
$

Everything that leaves the bank in a month, payroll included.

Monthly growth
%

The average of the last few months, not one good month.

%

Planned hiring and spend increases. Zero matches Graham's definition.

Result

Runway with growth: 18.6 mo

Runway with growth

18.6 mo

When cash runs out at these growth rates.

Default dead

Cash runs out in about 18.6 months, but revenue only covers expenses in month 29. That leaves a gap of about 10 months. Grow faster, cut costs, or start the conversation about funding that gap now.

Simple runway

15 mo

Monthly net burn of $800K, held constant.

Break-even

M29

First month revenue covers expenses.

Required monthly growth

4.5%

You're at 4%; 0.5 points to go.

Funding gap to break-even

$2.3M

Extra cash needed to reach month 29.

Cash balance

$0$5M$10M$15MM0M6M12M18M24M35

Revenue and expenses

$0$1M$2M$3MM0M6M12M18M24M35
RevenueExpenses

The default alive / dead framing comes from Paul Graham's 2015 essay. Leave expense growth at zero and the math matches his definition exactly.

Share this result

Results are estimates based on the values you enter, not investment or financial advice. The calculation runs in your browser and no separate request is made to send your numbers. The values you enter are written into the link in the address bar.

Formula

  • Net burn

    Monthly expenses − monthly revenue

  • Simple runway

    Cash ÷ net burn

    If revenue and expenses stay where they are today.

  • Projection with growth

    Cash(month) = Cash(previous month) + revenue × (1 + g)^month − expenses × (1 + e)^month

    g is monthly revenue growth, e is monthly expense growth.

  • Default alive

    Month revenue covers expenses ≤ month cash runs out

    For profit to last, revenue must grow at least as fast as expenses.

How to read the result

Start with the gap between the two runways. Simple runway holds today's burn constant; runway with growth accounts for burn shrinking as revenue rises. If the gap is large, your survival depends on growth continuing. If growth slows, the timeline slides back toward the simple number.

The real question isn't how many months you have left. It's whether you reach profitability before the money runs out. Paul Graham calls this default alive: if expenses stay flat and revenue keeps growing at the rate of the last several months, do you make it on the cash you have? This tool also takes expense growth as an input, so reflect your hiring plan if you have one.

If you're default dead, there are three levers: grow faster, cut costs, or raise enough to cover the gap. "Required monthly growth" shows how hard the first lever is. "Funding gap to break-even" sizes the third. If that number doesn't fit a realistic round, talking about costs now is far cheaper than talking about them in six months.

If you're default alive, look at the lowest cash point. If cash dips very low before you reach profit, the plan has no margin for error; two bad months can put you on the wrong side of the line. Try lowering the growth assumption by a point or two and watch how the answer changes.

Finally, keep the inputs honest. Use the average of the last few months as your growth rate, not one great month. Strip out one-off revenue and late payments. The math is only as good as the inputs; optimistic inputs give optimistic answers.

Frequently asked questions

How do you calculate runway?

In its simplest form: cash ÷ monthly net burn. Net burn is monthly expenses minus monthly revenue. 12 million in cash and 800 thousand of monthly net burn means 15 months of runway. If revenue is growing, real runway is longer; if expenses are rising, it's shorter. This tool accounts for both.

What does default alive mean?

It's from Paul Graham's 2015 essay. If your expenses stay constant and your revenue keeps growing at the rate it has over the last several months, and you reach profitability on the money you have left, you're default alive. If not, you're default dead. In other words: would you survive without raising more?

How many months of runway is enough?

There's no universal number. The test that matters is whether your break-even month comes before the month cash runs out. If profitability isn't in sight, remember that raising money takes time too, and act well before runway gets short.

What's the difference between gross burn and net burn?

Gross burn is the total you spend each month; net burn subtracts revenue from that. Runway uses net burn, because that's what actually leaves the bank account.

Why do I enter expense growth?

Graham's definition holds expenses flat, which is a conservative starting point. In reality, hiring and new tools push expenses up. Enter your planned expense growth and the result reflects your own budget. Leave it at zero and the calculation matches Graham's definition exactly.

Let's read the story behind the numbers together.

Let's pin down which metric is really limiting your growth and which lever to pull first.

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